Hong Kong Real Estate 2025: From Slump to Surge – Trends, Hotspots, and Forecasts to 2028

Market Overview and Key Drivers

Hong Kong’s property market in 2025 sits at a crossroads of recovery and uncertainty. After peaking in 2021, real estate values have undergone a multi-year correction, with home prices retreating to mid-2010s levels spglobal.com. Residential prices are down nearly 30% from their 2021 highs, touching lows not seen since 2016 spglobal.com. At the same time, transaction volumes are rebounding strongly – total property sales jumped 17% in 2024 (after declines in 2022–23) as buyers returned once pandemic restrictions eased globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. The result is a mixed market outlook: demand is stirring and policies have shifted to support buyers, yet parts of the market (especially offices) face oversupply and soft sentiment hongkongbusiness.hk hongkongbusiness.hk.

Several key drivers are shaping these dynamics:

• Economic Trends: Hong Kong’s economy is on a modest upswing post-COVID, growing 3.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025 spglobal.com. However, global headwinds – rising US–China trade tensions and a Mainland China slowdown – temper the outlook. The government cautions that uncertain trade policy and external volatility could “overshadow the near-term outlook” spglobal.com, keeping investors cautious.
• Interest Rates & Finance: With the Hong Kong dollar pegged to the US dollar, local interest rates surged in 2023 alongside U.S. Federal Reserve hikes. By May 2025, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s base rate stood at 4.75% globalpropertyguide.com, but signs of relief have emerged. The Fed paused rate increases, HIBOR (interbank rates) began softening, and banks even trimmed prime lending rates in late 2024 globalpropertyguide.com. Easing borrowing costs have improved buyer sentiment and lowered mortgage burdens, contributing to the recent uptick in home sales cushmanwakefield.com. Looking ahead, potential Fed rate cuts in late 2025 could further boost liquidity and buying power hongkongbusiness.hk. That said, authorities urge caution: any future rate volatility or global market swings can quickly ripple through Hong Kong’s highly leveraged property sector globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com.
• Demographics & Talent Flows: Population trends are a double-edged factor. Hong Kong’s population was roughly 7.53 million in 2024, inching up by 0.1% after previous declines reuters.com. Government talent-attraction schemes and border re-openings yielded a net inflow of about 21,000 people in 2024 reuters.com, including thousands of professionals from the Mainland and abroad. This influx – 14,200 “imported” talents (plus 9,300 dependents) in just the first two months of 2025 – is bolstering demand for high-end rentals and luxury homes jll.com.hk. Nonetheless, population growth remains anemic, and the city is still recovering from the 2019–2022 outflow of residents globalpropertyguide.com. An aging population and slower long-term growth in households pose challenges for sustained housing demand.
• Political & Integration Factors: The city’s political landscape has stabilized under the National Security Law, but its international appeal and investor confidence are still rebounding from the turmoil of 2019. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s integration with the Greater Bay Area (GBA) is an increasingly important driver. Closer cross-border ties promise new economic opportunities (e.g. joint innovation hubs and increased Mainland corporate presence) that could spur demand for offices and apartments in border districts. However, geopolitical risks linger – U.S.–China frictions or shifts in Mainland policy towards Hong Kong can influence capital flows and corporate real estate decisions. For instance, ongoing US–China trade disputes are already reshaping the logistics sector and prompting businesses to rethink supply chains jll.com.hk jll.com.hk.
• Regulatory Environment: In a dramatic policy U-turn, the Hong Kong government dismantled decade-old property cooling measures in 2023–2024 to revive the slumping market. Stamp duties that once targeted foreign and second-home buyers have been slashed or removed. This policy pivot – detailed in a later section – has re-opened the door to Mainland Chinese buyers and eased upfront costs for locals, injecting fresh demand globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. At the same time, long-term land supply and housing strategies are being rolled out to address chronic shortages, which could reshape development trends through 2028 and beyond.

Overall, 2025 marks an inflection point for Hong Kong real estate. The residential sector is showing early signs of stabilization amid supportive policies and recovering confidence, while commercial and industrial segments navigate a more cautious path. In the sections below, we dive into each major sector – residential, commercial (office and retail), and industrial – examining current trends, data on prices and volumes, policy shifts, and the outlook for different districts. We also highlight urban planning initiatives (from new towns to mega-reclamations) and identify key investment opportunities and risks that will define Hong Kong’s property landscape in the short to medium term.

Residential Real Estate: Prices Bottoming as Demand Rebounds

Home Prices and Sales: Hong Kong’s housing market has endured a significant correction since 2021, but there are clear signs that prices are bottoming out in 2025. The official residential price index has fallen year-on-year for 13 consecutive quarters globalpropertyguide.com. As of Q1 2025, home prices were down 7.8% from a year earlier (and ~9% in real terms), continuing the string of declines albeit at a moderating pace globalpropertyguide.com. This follows double-digit drops through much of 2023. Figure 1 below illustrates how values have slid back to roughly 2016 levels after the pandemic-era peak:

Notably, the luxury segment is outperforming the mass market amid the downturn. While small-to-midsize flats (sub-100 m²) saw prices fall 7–9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, the largest homes over 160 m² actually rose 7.2% in price from a year ago globalpropertyguide.com. This divergence suggests resilient demand (or limited supply) for ultra-prime properties – likely driven by wealthy buyers and returning expatriates – even as mainstream housing values remain under pressure. All size categories did see minor quarter-on-quarter dips in Q1, indicating the overall market has not fully turned upward yet globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com.

Encouragingly, transaction volumes have surged despite the price correction, a sign that buyers are re-entering the market. Total property transactions (new + second-hand) jumped 23.5% in 2024 to 53,099 deals, reversing the steep declines of 2022–23 globalpropertyguide.com. The momentum continued into early 2025: Q1 2025 home sales were up 19–36% year-on-year in both primary (new build) and secondary segments globalpropertyguide.com. In the new-home market especially, pent-up demand is evident – developers sold 3,897 new units in Q1 (36% higher than Q1 2024) as buyers snapped up attractively priced launches globalpropertyguide.com. Cheaper mortgages and the lifting of buying curbs have unleashed many once-sidelined purchasers. Even the resale (secondary) market saw over 8,200 units change hands in Q1 (a 19% annual rise) globalpropertyguide.com. However, compared to historical averages, overall sales volumes are still recovering from a very low base (they remain below peaks seen in the mid-2010s), so the current uptick indicates early-stage recovery rather than a full boom.

Policy Tailwinds: A major catalyst behind the sales rebound has been the loosening of housing market policies. After years of restrictive “cooling measures,” authorities made a sharp about-face:

• In February 2024, Hong Kong removed all extra stamp duties on home purchases globalpropertyguide.com. This effectively scrapped the 15% Buyer’s Stamp Duty on foreigners, the 15% Additional Duty on second homes, and the scaled levies on quick resales (Special Stamp Duty) that had been in place since the early 2010s globalpropertyguide.com. As Financial Secretary Paul Chan put it, demand-side curbs were “no longer necessary amidst the current economic and market conditions” globalpropertyguide.com. The impact was immediate – with these taxes gone, Mainland Chinese buyers flocked back into Hong Kong’s property market, boosting transactions notably in late 2024 globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com.
• Earlier, in October 2023, the government had already taken a first step by halving several stamp duties (BSD and second-home duty cut from 15% to 7.5%) and shortening the resale restriction period for flippers from 3 years to 2 years globalpropertyguide.com. Stamp taxes for designated “foreign talent” buyers were also waived (conditional on staying to gain permanent residency) globalpropertyguide.com. These mid-2023 tweaks were the first relaxation in a decade and set the stage for the full removal in 2024.
• To further support first-time local buyers of cheaper homes, the budget for 2025/26 raised the price threshold for minimal stamp duty: effective Feb 2025, homes up to HK$4 million (≈US$511k) incur only a HK$100 stamp duty globalpropertyguide.com. This updated cap (from the previous HK$3M) benefits an estimated 15% of transactions and forgoes ~$400M in tax revenue annually to help affordability globalpropertyguide.com.
• The Hong Kong Monetary Authority also eased mortgage lending rules – notably lowering the stress-test interest rate buffer by 1% in 2022 – to improve buyers’ financing ability amid higher rate conditions globalpropertyguide.com. This gave borrowers a bit more leeway in loan approval, partially offsetting the hit from rising interest rates.

These policy reversals mark a profound shift from the government’s long-held stance of suppressing speculation. The goal now is to stimulate a sluggish market and aid genuine demand. The results so far: market confidence has improved, and buying activity picked up as intended globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. Industry observers note that after the cooling measures were lifted, “transaction levels … increased again” and buyer optimism ticked up globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com.

Crucially, developers have responded by pricing new projects competitively to court buyers. Throughout 2024–25, many launches came with significant discounts or incentives, which, coupled with lower taxes, spurred brisk absorption of new units cushmanwakefield.com cushmanwakefield.com. This clearing of inventory is reflected in a falling “months of supply” of unsold new homes – from a peak of ~102 months in 2023 down to 78 months by late 2024 worldpropertyjournal.com worldpropertyjournal.com. JLL projects that if sales hold around 18,000 new units annually, unsold inventory could normalize to ~58 months (about 5 years’ worth) by end of 2025, approaching a more balanced market worldpropertyjournal.com worldpropertyjournal.com. In short, the primary market’s overhang is easing, reducing downward pressure on prices. Developers are even delaying some projects or leasing out unsold units to avoid flooding the market worldpropertyjournal.com worldpropertyjournal.com – a strategic supply management that indicates confidence in an eventual recovery.

Housing Supply and Construction: Hong Kong’s perennial housing shortage has not vanished, but recent efforts are starting to bear fruit in terms of new supply. Residential construction activity surged last year: completions in 2024 soared 75% to 24,261 units, a sharp turnaround from the pandemic-induced lull (completions had fallen 35% in 2023) globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. This was one of the highest annual completion totals in many years, thanks to multiple large projects finishing up. Notably, Kowloon and the New Territories accounted for 93% of the new homes (48% and 45% shares respectively), while Hong Kong Island – where land is scarcest – saw only 7% of 2024 completions globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. The Kowloon City district alone (which includes Kai Tak) contributed a whopping 33% of all new units in 2024, reflecting the massive redevelopment of the former airport area globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. In the New Territories, the biggest sources of fresh supply were Yuen Long and Tuen Mun (each 17% of 2024 completions) globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com – areas with large new-town projects and housing estates coming online. This geographic distribution highlights an ongoing trend: new housing growth is concentrated in outer districts, as the urban core has limited room for large developments.

Momentum has carried into 2025: another 5,486 units were completed in Q1 2025 alone globalpropertyguide.com. Tellingly, 62% of these were small flats under 40 m² globalpropertyguide.com, catering to mass-market demand. The government’s latest data shows Hong Kong’s total housing stock (private and public) reached about 1.292 million units in 2024, up 1.7% year-on-year globalpropertyguide.com. Over half of this stock (around 700k units) are tiny Class A/B flats under 70 m² – a legacy of developers maximizing volume under past constraints globalpropertyguide.com. While the recent boost in supply is relieving some pressure, it’s still playing catch-up with decades of undersupply. Even after the 2024 jump, Hong Kong’s housing vacancy remains low (about 4.5% of stock at end-2024, including homes still under Occupation Permit process) rvd.gov.hk, and overcrowding is prevalent in the lower-income segment.

To tackle the chronic shortage, ambitious plans are underway (see Policy & Urban Planning section for details). From fast-tracking land development to massive new towns like the Northern Metropolis, the government aims to add hundreds of thousands of homes in the coming 10–15 years globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. In the near term (next 3–4 years), the Housing Bureau forecasts 108,000 new private units could be produced worldpropertyjournal.com – a roughly 10% increase over recent peak supply levels. If realized, that pipeline will help gradually alleviate pent-up demand. However, in the immediate 2025–2028 window, housing supply will remain relatively tight by international standards, as large-scale projects (reclamations, new rail corridors, etc.) take time to materialize.

Rental Market: The rental side of Hong Kong’s residential market is also seeing a turning point. During the price boom of the 2010s, yields were driven to ultralow levels (2–3%) because capital values far outpaced rents – a hallmark of Hong Kong being a safe-haven asset market. Now, with prices down and rents starting to creep up, gross rental yields are inching higher, offering better income returns to landlords (though still modest). Average yields on small apartments have risen to ~3.7% as of early 2025, up from ~2.7% two years prior globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. Larger units yield less (around 2.4% for luxury homes) but also improved slightly year-on-year globalpropertyguide.com. These figures remain “extremely low by international standards” – a reminder that Hong Kong residential real estate is primarily a capital play, where investors accept low yields in anticipation of price appreciation globalpropertyguide.com.

On the ground, rents are rising moderately after a pandemic dip. In Q1 2025, leasing rates increased roughly 3–9% year-on-year across unit sizes globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. Notably, the strongest rent growth was in the 100–160 m² segment (+9% y/y), reflecting renewed demand for larger family units and luxury residences globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. In contrast, the smallest flats (<40 m²) saw rents up ~3.5% globalpropertyguide.com – still healthy, likely due to young professionals and singles returning as the city reopened. By region, rents in the New Territories have climbed fastest (off a lower base), with small NT flats seeing nearly 10% rent growth, as more people seek affordable space outside the urban core globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. Hong Kong Island flats remain the most expensive to rent (e.g. ~$60 per m² monthly for sub-40m² units in HK Island vs ~$44 in NT) globalpropertyguide.com. Even so, the combination of rising rents and fallen prices means the rent-to-price ratio is normalizing. This trend is luring some investors back into the market – improved rental yields were cited as one factor “encouraging investors to re-enter” housing in 2025 cushmanwakefield.com cushmanwakefield.com. For tenants, though, the gradual rent hikes are pinching after the brief relief during COVID; housing affordability remains a pressing social issue, especially for low-income households still stuck in tiny subdivided units or waiting for public housing.

Outlook for Residential: Most analysts see the residential sector reaching equilibrium by late 2025. With interest rates stabilizing and supply-demand balance improving, home prices are expected to flatten out and potentially see mild growth in the coming years. Major consultancies forecast 2025 price changes in the range of -5% to +3% cushmanwakefield.com jll.com.hk – essentially a stabilization after the previous double-digit drops. Government data already show that, by spring 2025, real (inflation-adjusted) house prices are back to 2012 levels globalpropertyguide.com, greatly reducing bubble risk. Indeed, Hong Kong fell out of the top “bubble risk” category in UBS’s Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024 for the first time, given the sharp price correction globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. This healthier starting point, combined with developers actively managing new supply (even mothballing projects to prevent a glut worldpropertyjournal.com), suggests a foundation for gradual recovery. Barring external shocks, housing values could stabilize in 2025 and resume modest growth through 2028, supported by improved affordability, the return of Mainland buyers, and an expected easing of monetary conditions. However, any recovery will likely be measured rather than explosive – policymakers have explicitly shifted to a “supply-led” housing strategy to avoid future overheating globalpropertyguide.com, and a significant pipeline of public housing is in progress that will absorb some demand (28,000 new public units per year planned) globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com.

In summary, Hong Kong’s residential market in 2025 is starting to turn the corner. Prices are near their cyclical low, transaction activity is improving, and the government’s pro-buyer policy pivot has lifted sentiment. Still, the road ahead is cautious: the market must work through existing inventory (nearly 79,000 unsold units at end-2024 across pre-sale and completed projects worldpropertyjournal.com worldpropertyjournal.com) and monitor economic cross-currents. For end-users and investors alike, 2025–2026 may offer a window of relatively flat prices and increased choices, before the longer-term supply crunch reasserts upward pressure later on. Location and segment will matter – mass-market home prices are likely to stay soft until excess supply is absorbed, whereas the scarce luxury segment could see faster gains (particularly if the influx of affluent expats and Mainland professionals continues). Overall, the worst of the housing downturn appears over, setting the stage for a period of stabilization and incremental growth moving toward 2028 cushmanwakefield.com.

Commercial Real Estate: Offices under Pressure, Retail in Recovery

Hong Kong’s commercial property sector is experiencing divergent fortunes in 2025. The office market faces high vacancy and downward rent pressure due to new supply and evolving workspace trends. In contrast, the retail sector is cautiously recovering as foot traffic and tourism rebound, although retail rents remain below pre-pandemic peaks. We examine each in turn:

Office Market: High Vacancies Amid a New Supply Wave

Hong Kong’s Grade A office market is in a tenant-favorable phase, grappling with a supply overhang and soft demand. The numbers tell the story: the overall Grade A office vacancy rate has climbed into the mid-teens and is expected to approach 19% by end-2025 (up from ~17% in 2024) hongkongbusiness.hk. This is a dramatic rise from near-zero vacancies in Central a few years ago, and it reflects both cyclical and structural factors:

• Surge of New Supply: After years of tight supply, Hong Kong is seeing a wave of new office towers completing, especially in emerging business districts. Approximately 3.5 million sq ft of new office space is hitting the market in 2025 alone, led by landmark projects like the International Gateway Centre in West Kowloon (a 2.6M sq ft twin-tower complex atop the high-speed rail station) and new skyscrapers in traditionally tight areas hongkongbusiness.hk. Ongoing developments in Kowloon East (Kwun Tong/Kai Tak) – envisioned as a second CBD – are also adding significant floor area. Fitch Ratings notes that continuous supply growth “in areas such as Kowloon East” is a major driver of the rising vacancy rate hongkongbusiness.hk.
• Subdued Demand & Flight to Quality: Occupier demand has been recovering only slowly from the pandemic slump. In Q1 2025, net absorption was actually negative 143,000 sq ft, as space given up by downsizing tenants outweighed new leases jll.com.hk jll.com.hk. Many firms are re-evaluating space needs due to hybrid work and cost-cutting. Those that are expanding (notably in finance and professional services) are often “flight-to-quality” tenants – taking advantage of lower rents to upgrade into premium buildings cushmanwakefield.com cushmanwakefield.com. This has led to better performance in core areas: for instance, Central’s vacancy improved to 11.5% in Q1 2025 (from 11.6%), as it continues to attract demand for top-tier space jll.com.hk jll.com.hk. Similarly, vacancies in Wanchai/Causeway Bay and Tsim Sha Tsui (traditional business zones) have stabilized around 8–10% jll.com.hk jll.com.hk. In contrast, decentralized districts are bearing the brunt – vacancy in Kowloon East has ballooned to 21.3% as of Q1 2025 jll.com.hk jll.com.hk, given its influx of new buildings and tenants consolidating back to core areas. The overall citywide availability (including sublease space) is even higher, hovering around 19–20% in mid-2025 cushmanwakefield.com cushmanwakefield.com.
• Rent Declines: With supply abundant and tenants spoilt for choice, landlords are under pressure to compete on rents and incentives. Office rents have been on a clear downtrend: Grade A rents fell about 3–5% in 2024, and another ~1.3% in Q1 2025 jll.com.hk. Every submarket saw declines in early 2025 – Hong Kong East (Quarry Bay) led with a 3.4% drop in Q1, while even Central saw rents dip 0.7% in the quarter jll.com.hk jll.com.hk. According to JLL, financial district rents are now ~20% below pre-2019 levels, enhancing Hong Kong’s regional competitiveness but pinching landlord revenues. Market experts predict office rents will slide further before finding a floor: forecasts for 2025 full-year rental change range from -5% to -10% jll.com.hk jll.com.hk. Fitch even expects “low-teens percentage” negative rent reversion for expiring leases, as tenants renew at significantly lower current market rates hongkongbusiness.hk. The silver lining is that the pace of decline is slowing – Q2 2025 saw only a 1% quarterly drop, an improvement from -2.5% in Q1 cushmanwakefield.com cushmanwakefield.com. This suggests the worst may be past, with rents approaching a cyclical trough in late 2025.

Despite these challenges, leasing activity has picked up from pandemic lows. In Q2 2025, new leasing volume reached 1.2 million sq ft – the highest quarterly take-up since early 2020 cushmanwakefield.com cushmanwakefield.com. Much of this was driven by the banking and finance sector, which underpinned several large relocations and expansions cushmanwakefield.com cushmanwakefield.com. Hong Kong’s IPO market has also shown signs of revival in 2023–24, and any sustained rebound in capital markets would “help support office demand” from financial and professional firms cushmanwakefield.com cushmanwakefield.com. Additionally, Mainland Chinese companies (particularly in tech and wealth management) continue to view Hong Kong as a strategic location, providing a stream of tenants – though their expansion plans have been more cautious lately amid China’s own economic uncertainty.

From an investment standpoint, office capital values have corrected alongside rents. Grade A office prices are down roughly 20–30% from their peak, leading to some interesting opportunities for investors with a long-term view. Indeed, distressed or value-add plays are emerging: banks are expected to sell repossessed office assets in 2025 hongkongbusiness.hk, which could allow buyers to snap up quality buildings at a discount. Large developers and REITs remain financially stable (Fitch has Stable outlooks on major landlords like Link REIT, Swire, SHKP, and Hysan hongkongbusiness.hk hongkongbusiness.hk), so a wave of forced selling is unlikely; however, smaller owners or non-core assets might change hands as the market re-prices.

In terms of geographical hotspots:

• Central CBD stays resilient – its prestige and limited new supply keep it relatively insulated. Central Grade A rents (~HK$120 psf/month) still command a 40–50% premium over Kowloon East. Fitch noted Causeway Bay (where Hysan dominates) as a “relatively resilient submarket” even during the downturn hongkongbusiness.hk hongkongbusiness.hk.
• Kowloon East and Kai Tak are the epicenter of new supply and thus the weakest spot currently. With vacancy over 20% and more projects completing (e.g. new office towers in the Kai Tak Development Area), this district will remain a tenant’s market through 2028. Landlords here are offering aggressive rents and fit-out incentives to lure occupants, especially as some multinational firms have pulled back from decentralization plans.
• West Kowloon is an emerging office node to watch. The International Gateway Centre (IGC), a landmark twin-tower project above West Kowloon Station, is completing by end-2025 building.hk building.hk. With 2.6M sq ft of Grade A offices and 600k sq ft of retail podium, IGC will significantly boost office inventory in Tsim Sha Tsui/Jordan. Its appeal lies in connectivity (high-speed rail link to Mainland China) and brand-new facilities (designed by a star architect). Early indications suggest financial institutions and Mainland firms are interested in West Kowloon for regional headquarters. However, in the near term it will add to vacancy pressure until absorption catches up.
• Older CBD Fringe Areas (e.g. Wan Chai, Island East): These locations have seen rents fall the most (e.g. Quarry Bay -3.4% in Q1 jll.com.hk) as some tenants upgraded to Central or new buildings. Some aging office stock may face redevelopment or repositioning (e.g. into co-working, hotels, or even residential via incentives to convert usage).

Outlook for Offices: The office market’s adjustment is expected to continue through 2025–2026. Landlords will likely need to remain competitive on lease terms to maintain occupancy, especially with another ~4+ million sq ft of supply slated over 2025–2027 (including projects like One North Point and new towers in Kwun Tong). Analysts predict vacancy could peak around 2025–26 and then gradually improve as the economy strengthens and supply tapers off. Rents are seen bottoming by 2026, potentially stabilizing or rising slightly thereafter as the oversupply is absorbed and if Hong Kong’s role as a finance hub stays solid. One encouraging factor: Hong Kong’s status as a regional headquarters location remains unchallenged in Asia – there’s renewed interest from mainland tech and asset management firms to set up sizable offices in the city. Government efforts to attract companies (like tax concessions for family offices) could also stimulate office demand. Nonetheless, the days of ultralow office vacancy and spiraling rents are over, at least for the medium term. Companies have more options than ever – they can choose high-end space in Kowloon at half the Central rent, or negotiate favorable deals in premium Central buildings thanks to higher vacancies. As a result, rent growth, when it returns, will likely be slow and segmented, with the best quality, well-located offices recovering first.

For now, 2025 offers occupiers an excellent window to lock in attractive office leases, while investors may find value in beaten-down office assets (particularly if acquired below replacement cost). The key risk ahead is if demand falters further – for instance, if a global recession or local downturn hits, office downsizing could resume and prolong the glut. Conversely, a surprise upside (e.g. a big influx of mainland firms post border normalization, or a tech sector rebound) could accelerate absorption. Stakeholders are thus keeping a close eye on the broader economy and Hong Kong’s connectivity with China, as these will heavily influence office space needs in the run-up to 2028.

Retail Market: Gradual Rebound on the Back of Tourism Revival

Hong Kong’s retail real estate is in recovery mode in 2025, after being battered by the double whammy of 2019’s social unrest and nearly three years of COVID isolation. Shopper traffic and sales are rising again thanks to the return of tourists and local consumer spending, but the sector has yet to fully regain its pre-2019 vibrancy. Rents in prime retail areas remain somewhat soft, and high street vacancies – while improving – are elevated compared to the boom years.

Tourism & Sales Trends: The lifeblood of Hong Kong’s retail market is tourism, particularly mainland Chinese visitors who historically drove luxury spending. With the border reopened in early 2023, visitor arrivals have surged. Hong Kong recorded 44.5 million tourist arrivals in 2024, a 31% jump from the prior year hongkongbusiness.hk hongkongfp.com. This is an impressive rebound, though still about one-third below the 65 million arrivals in 2018 (the last pre-protest, pre-pandemic year) hongkongfp.com. For 2025, tourism is on track to climb further: monthly arrivals in early 2025 were around 2.2 million (Jan) and rising ceicdata.com. The government and Tourism Board have been proactive, staging “mega events” and promotions to lure international travelers and restore Hong Kong’s reputation as Asia’s World City cushmanwakefield.com cushmanwakefield.com.

As a result, retail sales have shown signs of bottoming out. After a brutal contraction in 2020 and a tepid recovery in 2021–22, total retail sales value finally stabilized. In Jan–Apr 2025, retail sales were down 5.6% year-on-year hongkongbusiness.hk, which, while still a drop, is a smaller decline than the -7% seen in 2024 hongkongbusiness.hk. By May 2025, monthly retail sales even notched a +2.4% increase YoY, marking the first growth in over a year cushmanwakefield.com. Categories like jewelry, watches, and luxury goods (which rely on tourist spending) remain below pre-pandemic levels, but mass-market categories (supermarkets, consumer goods) have held up thanks to local demand. Importantly, mainland shopper patterns have shifted: many now spend more on affordable experiences and outlets rather than just luxury boutiques, a trend that has buoyed F&B and entertainment retail.

Vacancy and Rents: The retail leasing market is improving, but it’s not a uniform recovery. High street shop vacancy in key shopping districts was ~10.6% in Q1 2025, barely down from 10.5% at end-2024 jll.com.hk jll.com.hk. This means roughly 1 in 10 street-level shops in prime areas (like Causeway Bay, Tsim Sha Tsui, Central, Mong Kok) is still vacant – a far cry from near 0% vacancy during the 2010s tourist boom. Shopping malls have fared slightly better: vacancy in prime malls was ~9.2% in Q1 (up from 9.1% in late 2024) jll.com.hk jll.com.hk, as Hong Kong’s well-managed malls retained most tenants through the downturn with rent concessions and promotions. The persistently high vacancies indicate that some retail spaces, especially large flagship stores once taken by luxury brands, remain empty or have been slow to lease out. A number of high-profile shops on Russell Street and Canton Road (previously the world’s priciest retail strips) closed during 2019–20 and have yet to find long-term replacements. Those that have been leased were often at much lower rents to new types of tenants (e.g. local brands, pharmacies, sportswear, or even pop-up experiences).

Retail rents continue to adjust downward modestly, reflecting these conditions. In Q1 2025, high street shop rents dipped another 0.8% quarter-on-quarter jll.com.hk jll.com.hk. Prime shopping centre rents slipped 0.3% and super-prime malls by 0.2% in the quarter jll.com.hk jll.com.hk. On an annual basis, shop rents are a few percent lower than a year ago. However, the pace of decline has slowed significantly – the rental drops now are in the low single-digits, compared to double-digit crashes in 2020. Landlords are still generally offering rent discounts or flexible terms to attract tenants amid “sales headwinds” in some retail segments jll.com.hk jll.com.hk. For 2025, forecasts suggest flat to -5% rent movement for high street and prime retail – essentially bumping along the bottom jll.com.hk jll.com.hk. If tourist spending continues to recover, rents could finally stabilize by 2026.

Changing Tenant Mix: One notable trend is a reshuffling of the retail tenant mix. Where luxury watch and fashion boutiques once dominated Hong Kong’s high streets, now more affordable brands and experiential operators are taking space cushmanwakefield.com cushmanwakefield.com. For instance, in Q2 2025, areas like Mong Kok and Tsim Sha Tsui saw active leasing by sports apparel, fast fashion, and cosmetics brands targeting value-conscious shoppers cushmanwakefield.com cushmanwakefield.com. Fitness centers, lifestyle stores, and even financial services (banks, securities firms) have also been expanding into street-level retail units jll.com.hk jll.com.hk, capitalizing on cheaper rents to increase their presence. This diversification is creating a more dynamic, if slightly less upscale, retail landscape. Malls are also adjusting – many upscale malls have brought in more entertainment (like kids’ zones, art exhibits) and dining to draw footfall. The government’s push for events (Art Basel, Clockenflap music festival, sports events, etc.) helps by boosting short-term foot traffic and spending during those periods cushmanwakefield.com.

By district:

• Causeway Bay (Traditionally No.1 retail district) is still subdued. Rents on Russell Street are down massively from their peak and vacancy is higher than elsewhere. But local fashion and F&B are gradually filling spaces; the area’s recovery will hinge on mainland tourists returning to pre-2019 shopping habits.
• Tsim Sha Tsui has seen some pickup thanks to overnight tourists – Harbour City (a giant mall) reports improved sales, and Nathan Road is seeing mid-market tenants (like pharmacies and sports brands) replace luxury jewelers. The West Kowloon cultural district (M+) and high-speed rail terminus nearby are adding draws to the area.
• Mong Kok and Sham Shui Po (popular with locals and mainland day-trippers for bargain goods) are relatively vibrant. These districts actually saw increases in rents year-on-year for smaller shop spaces as per Colliers, due to strong demand from local businesses and the draw of specialty streets (sneaker street, electronics street) hongkongbusiness.hk hongkongbusiness.hk.
• Shopping Malls in suburban areas (Sha Tin’s New Town Plaza, Tsuen Wan, etc.) have been resilient throughout, buoyed by local residential catchments. They continue to enjoy high occupancy and are often the first to see sales rebound when consumption improves.

Outlook for Retail: The trajectory is cautiously optimistic. As international travel normalizes, Hong Kong could approach its pre-pandemic visitor numbers by 2026–27, which would significantly lift retail demand. Already, the re-opening of mainland China’s borders and the easing of quarantine has unleashed pent-up tourism, and per capita tourist spending is expected to rise as confidence returns. Therefore, many expect retail rents to bottom out by 2025 with a mild uptick in 2026. Fitch Ratings notes “tentative signs of stabilisation” in retail and has stable outlooks on major retail landlords (e.g. Link REIT which owns many malls) hongkongbusiness.hk hongkongbusiness.hk. Retail sales in 2025 are forecast to grow in the low single digits, barring any new shocks cushmanwakefield.com.

However, the post-COVID retail landscape will be different. E-commerce penetration in Hong Kong jumped during the pandemic (online retail sales were still down 4.1% YoY in late 2024 as some demand shifted back offline) savills.com savills.com. Some structural changes – more local spending in residential areas, less pure luxury extravagance – may persist. Hong Kong is also competing with other shopping hubs (like Macau’s newer malls and Hainan’s duty-free stores) for Chinese luxury spend. This suggests that ultra-high retail rents (the kind that made Causeway Bay the world’s priciest retail street) may not return soon. Instead, landlords will focus on experiential retail (things online shopping can’t provide) and a balanced tenant mix to keep malls and shopping streets attractive.

Government support may continue via consumption voucher schemes (as done in 2022) or by nurturing Hong Kong’s reputation as a safe, exciting tourist destination. If the broader economy holds up and unemployment stays low, local consumption will also underpin the retail sector. In sum, expect a steady if unspectacular recovery in retail real estate: declining vacancy, gradually rising rents, and an adaptive retail scene aiming to capture both the local wallet and the tourist dollar by 2028.

Industrial Real Estate: Resilient Logistics Facing New Challenges

Hong Kong’s industrial property sector – which includes warehouses, logistics centers, and industrial-office buildings – has shown resilience through the pandemic, but it faces headwinds from shifting trade patterns and increased supply. Historically, tight land supply and Hong Kong’s role as a trading hub kept industrial vacancies extremely low (often under 2%). This changed in 2023–2024 as global trade slowed and new modern warehouse projects came online.

Occupancy and Supply: After a long period of full occupancy, vacancies in industrial facilities have risen off their floor. The overall warehouse vacancy rate climbed from 7.9% in Q4 2024 to 8.9% in Q1 2025 jll.com.hk, the highest in many years. This was partly a result of several big, high-spec logistics facilities completing in recent quarters, increasing available space. According to JLL, even “prime” warehouses (the newest, best-located ones) that stayed ~98% occupied during COVID now have over 8% vacancy by March 2025 jll.com.hk jll.com.hk. Given Hong Kong’s prime warehouse stock of ~60 million sq ft, that translates to more than 5 million sq ft lying vacant as of Q1 2025 jll.com.hk jll.com.hk. Essentially, a market that was once starved for space has a bit of breathing room now.

New supply has been a factor: projects like ATL Logistics Centre expansion and modern ramps-up warehouses in Tsing Yi, Tung Chung, and the New Territories have added capacity. The government also rolled out a scheme to revitalize older industrial buildings (by conversion or redevelopment), which in some cases led to temporary increases in vacancy as buildings emptied for conversion – though many have been turned into offices, hotels, or self-storage, thus exiting the “industrial” stock count.

Demand Shifts: On the demand side, logistics and industrial demand has softened compared to the pandemic peak. During 2020–21, e-commerce and storage demand boomed (for medical supplies, online shopping distribution, etc.), keeping warehouses full. As those trends normalized, warehouse take-up slowed. JLL notes that leasing activity in Q1 2025 was dominated by renewals rather than new expansions jll.com.hk. Many 3PL (third-party logistics) operators are renewing in place or even downsizing due to cost pressures and efficiency gains. Some high-volume trading firms reduced space as Hong Kong’s exports/imports have yet to fully rebound – though there was a glimmer of hope in late 2024 with exports up 3.6% YoY and air cargo throughput rising ~9.6% as global supply chains unclogged savills.com savills.com.

Regional trade dynamics weigh heavily: The ongoing US–China trade tensions and a slowing global economy have weakened demand for storage of re-export goods jll.com.hk jll.com.hk. Hong Kong’s role as a re-export hub is challenged by more direct mainland ports and changing sourcing patterns (e.g. less U.S. import of China goods, more Southeast Asia sourcing). Thus, some warehouse occupiers have been consolidating or shifting focus. Air freight is a bright spot – with Hong Kong International Airport still the world’s busiest cargo airport, the rebound in air cargo volume (nearly +10% in late 2024) has propped up demand for airport logistics space savills.com. But sea freight/logistics tied to mainland manufacturing has been more sluggish.

Rents and Values: Despite higher vacancy, industrial rents have been relatively stable, reflecting the still-limited overall stock and essential nature of logistics. Prime warehouse rents dipped only 0.9% QOQ in late 2024 jll.com.hk jll.com.hk, and anecdotal data suggests they were roughly flat in early 2025. Even after recent increases, the warehouse vacancy (~9%) is far lower than office vacancy, so landlords haven’t had to cut rents drastically yet. Many logistics leases are long-term and tenants value location (Hong Kong’s geographic advantage for distribution in Pearl River Delta). That said, if vacancy continues rising toward double-digits, we could see some rental softening in older or less ideally located industrial buildings. JLL warns that “vacancy for premium warehouses is expected to rise further, suppressing rental rates” in the near term jll.com.hk jll.com.hk.

Industrial capital values also held firm through 2024, even increasing in some cases due to investor interest (industrial assets are sought for their redevelopment potential and comparatively higher yields). In Q4 2024, strata-titled industrial sales volume jumped 38% QoQ savills.com, as investors anticipated the market bottom and took advantage of lower interest rates. End-users (like logistics firms or data center operators) are also emerging as buyers of industrial properties, locking in premises for long-term use savills.com savills.com. Yields on industrial assets (often ~3–4%) look attractive relative to ultra-low yields in the office sector.

Notable Trends:

• Data Centers & New Economy Use: With Hong Kong’s push to be a tech hub, some industrial sites are being repurposed for data centers, R&D labs, or cloud computing facilities. These uses require high power capacity and security, often fitting well in industrial zones. There is rising demand for data center space (Hong Kong is a top data center market in Asia), which indirectly supports industrial land values.
• Northern Metropolis Opportunity: The planned Northern Metropolis in the New Territories (see later section) includes dedicated logistics parks and an “Innovation and Technology zone” near Shenzhen. This long-term plan could shift some industrial demand northward, as new facilities come up there by late 2020s. For now, areas like Hung Shui Kiu and Yuen Long are being eyed for modern warehouse development to serve the Greater Bay Area. This is both an opportunity (modern infrastructure) and a risk (it could draw tenants from existing facilities in Kwai Tsing or elsewhere).
• Structural Changes: The industrial sector is adapting to structural changes in global trade. Hong Kong’s import-export trade is evolving: less dominance in low-cost goods warehousing, more focus on high-value logistics, cold storage (for pharmaceuticals, food), and regional distribution for e-commerce. This transition will “take time and face challenges” jll.com.hk, but it is necessary for Hong Kong to maintain relevance as a logistics hub. Efficiency improvements (automation in warehouses, etc.) could also reduce space needed per unit of throughput, affecting long-term demand.

Outlook for Industrial: In the short term (2025–2026), Hong Kong’s industrial real estate may see slightly higher vacancy and flat-to-soft rents, as new supply peaks and global trade remains lukewarm. For instance, the vacancy could edge into low double-digits before stabilizing. However, by 2027–2028, the sector is expected to regain balance. Hong Kong’s strategic location and world-class port/airport mean logistics demand should ultimately grow in line with regional trade recovery. If geopolitical tensions ease and global growth resumes, warehousing needs will pick up. Moreover, any reduction in U.S. tariffs or improved China-West trade relations could directly boost Hong Kong’s cargo volumes.

Investors remain bullish long-term – evidenced by continued strong bids for industrial en-bloc sales and optimism from major players. The government’s recent industrial land sales (in Tuen Mun, etc.) still saw healthy interest, indicating confidence in the sector’s future. Rental outlook: After a possible 0-5% dip in 2025 for prime warehouses, rents could start rising modestly (~2-3% annually) beyond 2026 as vacancy tightens again. Yields might compress given high investment demand for industrial (including a nascent REIT market for logistics assets in Asia cushmanwakefield.com).

In summary, Hong Kong’s industrial real estate is weathering a transitional period. It had been the standout performer (low vacancy, steady growth) even when offices and retail struggled, but is now normalizing to a slightly looser market. Still, compared to other sectors, industrial fundamentals remain relatively solid with no oversupply glut (just a right-sizing from extremely tight conditions). The sector’s evolution – into smarter logistics, integration with mainland e-commerce, and possible usage conversion – will be a key theme through 2028. Stakeholders who adapt (e.g. upgrading old industrial buildings, embracing tech industries) stand to benefit in the next upcycle.

Government Policy and Urban Planning Initiatives

Hong Kong’s real estate prospects are inextricably linked to government policy – both short-term market interventions and long-term land use planning. Recent years have seen significant moves on both fronts. We’ve already discussed the rollback of cooling measures and tax changes that have altered market sentiment in 2024–25. Here, we highlight those briefly and then focus on the urban planning mega-projects and housing development plans that will shape the territory’s real estate over the coming decade.

Cooling Measures U-Turn: The decade-long era of aggressive demand suppression (2010–2020) has effectively ended. By early 2024, all extra stamp duties were scrapped to breathe life into the housing market globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. This policy reversal cannot be overstated – it marks a philosophical shift from taming prices at all costs to prioritizing market activity and housing turnover. The removal of the 15% foreign buyer tax and other levies immediately made Hong Kong property more accessible to Mainland and overseas buyers, who had been largely priced out by taxes. Combined with looser mortgage rules (lower stress test threshold) and specific incentives for skilled immigrants to buy homes, the government has signaled it wants to attract talent and investment through the property channel, rather than deter it. Going forward, officials have indicated they will rely on boosting supply (and subsidized housing) to address affordability, rather than suppressing demand. This suggests that as the market recovers, we are unlikely to see a quick re-imposition of harsh cooling measures unless a new speculative bubble clearly forms. For now, the policy stance is supportive of a stable, liquid property market.

Long-Term Housing Supply Strategy: Hong Kong’s housing shortage and sky-high prices have been a source of public discontent for years. In response, the government’s Long Term Housing Strategy (LTHS) has set ambitious targets. As per the latest progress report (Oct 2024), the 10-year housing supply target is 430,000 units (2024–2034) globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. Of these, 70% (around 302,000 units) are planned as public housing (including subsidized sale flats and public rental units), and 30% (roughly 132,000) as private housing globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. The emphasis on public housing is greater than ever – reflecting policy direction to increase affordable housing availability. The government aims to provide land for at least 30,000 public housing units per year and facilitate around 18,000 private units annually globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. These targets are higher than historical production, so they hinge on unlocking new land supply at an unprecedented pace.

Key initiatives under this strategy:

• Maintaining a “supply-led” approach: expedite land development and be flexible in zoning to get more flats built faster globalpropertyguide.com.
• Strengthening the housing ladder: reviving schemes like Starter Homes, expanding subsidized Home Ownership Scheme, so more people can move from renting to owning globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com.
• Improving public rental housing efficiency: encourage well-off tenants to move out or buy so that rental flats free up for the needy globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com.

In the shorter term, the government launched a controversial “Light Public Housing” program – a HK$26.4 billion plan to build 30,000 interim homes (prefabricated units) on idle sites within five years globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. These are essentially temporary cheap flats aimed at relieving the worst overcrowding (e.g. people in subdivided “coffin homes”). While this helps thousands of families to get slightly better living conditions while they await permanent public housing, it has faced backlash for its high cost and temporary nature globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. Nonetheless, it underscores the government’s acknowledgement of a housing crisis and willingness to spend on stopgap solutions.

Massive New Development Areas: To meet housing and economic needs, Hong Kong is undertaking some of its biggest land development projects in decades. The two flagships are:

• Northern Metropolis – A visionary plan to transform the northern New Territories (areas bordering Shenzhen) into a sprawling metropolis of new towns, tech parks, and up to 926,000 new homes over 20 years globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. Announced in 2021 and now a government priority, this plan encompasses places like Hong Shui Kiu, Yuen Long, Fanling, and a new “Innovation and Technology City” at Lok Ma Chau Loop. The goal is to integrate with Shenzhen’s tech economy, effectively creating a dual-city cluster. Over 40% of the housing target is to be completed by 2032 globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com – implying ~370,000 units by then, which will dramatically increase supply. The Northern Metropolis will feature multiple new MTR lines, commercial hubs, and a large proportion of public housing. Implication: Over the next 5–10 years, we will see land resumption, rezoning of farmlands/brownfields, and phased construction in these areas. Real estate investors are already eyeing land in the New Territories in anticipation of this development boom.
• Lantau Tomorrow Vision – Also known as Kau Yi Chau artificial islands, this is a plan to reclaim about 1,700 hectares of land near Lantau Island (west of Hong Kong Island) to build a new metropolis on man-made islands. Phase 1, currently being designed, envisions around 1000+ hectares of reclaimed land that could provide ~200,000 new homes (with 70% as public housing) and a new Central Business District globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. The entire Lantau Tomorrow project, if fully realized by 2030s-2040s, would be one of the world’s largest reclamation projects. The government’s pitch is that it creates a huge new land reserve to “moderate Hong Kong’s still-high housing costs” long-term globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. It would also include transport infrastructure (roads and rails connecting to Lantau and urban areas) and substantial commercial zones to support economic growth. The price tag is enormous (est. HK$580 billion+), and there is controversy over environmental impact and cost. But initial funding has been approved to start planning and design. If it proceeds on schedule, the first land parcels may be available in the early 2030s, just outside our 2028 focus but certainly affecting sentiment. The prospect of Lantau Tomorrow reassures the market that land scarcity will be eased in the long run, which may curb speculative landhoarding and keep long-term price expectations in check.

Additionally:

• Tung Chung New Town Extension: A nearer-term project (already under construction) to reclaim 130 ha on Lantau’s north and expand Tung Chung town. By 2030 it will provide 49,000 flats for 144,000 people plus a sizable commercial area globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. This is significant for the medium term: some of these flats will come on stream by 2027–2028, offering new private and public housing near the airport.
• Urban Redevelopment (Kowloon & Urban areas): The Urban Renewal Authority (URA) is accelerating redevelopment of old districts (Sham Shui Po, To Kwa Wan, etc.), which will yield new residential and retail projects. The government also invoked a vacancy tax in 2018 (5% of property value for flats left empty >6 months) to push developers to launch units faster, and earmarked some former commercial sites (like in Kai Tak) for public housing to boost supply. These steps ensure that land already in hand is used efficiently.

Transportation and Infrastructure: Several infrastructure projects will unlock new areas or enhance connectivity, affecting real estate:

• The Shatin-Central rail link opened fully in 2022, improving access along the Kowloon corridor and likely raising values in districts like Kai Tak and Ma On Shan.
• A planned Hong Kong-Shenzhen Western Railway (through Northern Metropolis) will enhance cross-border integration and make new towns viable for commuting.
• Road links like the Tseung Kwan O–Lam Tin Tunnel (opened 2022) shorten travel times, boosting residential appeal of Tseung Kwan O.
• The government is studying CBD underground space development (Central-Wanchai) and land sale of the old airport north apron for commercial use, which could inject more Grade A office supply in a planned manner to prevent overconcentration.

In summary, Hong Kong’s policy direction is twofold: immediate measures to rejuvenate the market and long-term projects to expand land and housing supply. For investors and developers, this means a landscape with fewer buying restrictions (good for demand) but eventually much more housing construction (which could cap runaway price growth). Government interventions will continue to play a big role – e.g., if the market overheats again, officials might re-introduce selective curbs, and if the economy sags, more stimulus (like tax breaks or schemes for first-time buyers) could emerge. Also, politics cannot be ignored: policies such as prioritizing locals vs. mainland buyers, land border integration, and allocation of public vs private housing all depend on the administration’s agenda and public sentiment.

Overall, the urban planning initiatives like Northern Metropolis and Lantau Tomorrow present huge opportunities – they will create new commercial districts, millions of square feet of new office/hotel/retail space, and modern smart-city environments. They also present execution risks (delays, budget overruns, public opposition). Real estate players who align with these plans – e.g. land acquisitions in NT, positioning for new CBDs – could reap significant rewards by 2028 and beyond. At the same time, existing urban areas will face competition from these new developments later, potentially shifting the investment landscape (for instance, will Central’s importance dilute when another CBD sprouts on an artificial island? Will New Territories homes narrow the price gap to urban homes once connectivity improves?). These are the strategic questions on the horizon.

District Spotlight: Key Areas and Emerging Hotspots

Hong Kong’s real estate market is highly localized – neighborhoods and districts each have unique dynamics. Here we provide a snapshot of notable regions, highlighting which areas are thriving and which are facing challenges in 2025, as well as emerging hotspots to watch:

• Central & Admiralty (Hong Kong Island): The traditional CBD on Hong Kong Island remains the most prestigious (and expensive) office locale. Vacancy in Central’s skyscrapers is around 11–12%, significantly lower than the city average jll.com.hk jll.com.hk. Central’s Grade A offices have proved relatively resilient due to limited new supply and sustained demand from finance firms – even in downturns, many businesses prefer to “flight-to-quality” into Central. Retail in Central (e.g. Queen’s Road, IFC mall) is gradually recovering with returning tourists and office workers, though some luxury boutiques gave way to more lifestyle tenants. On the residential side, Mid-Levels and The Peak (Central’s adjacent upscale residential areas) continue to command record prices, and interestingly large luxury homes here saw price upticks in 2024–25 when the mass market was down globalpropertyguide.com. With few new developments (land scarcity in Mid-Levels), these neighborhoods will remain elite enclaves. Outlook: Central will maintain its dominance as a financial hub through 2028, buoyed by new infrastructure (e.g. the MTR’s new Shatin-Central link terminus in Admiralty). However, as newer business districts rise, Central’s growth may be more incremental. Investors still view Central office assets (e.g. strata units in Bank of America Tower or old buildings ripe for redevelopment) as trophy targets given the area’s enduring appeal.
• Kowloon East (Kwun Tong / Kai Tak): Touted as the “CBD2”, Kowloon East has seen massive transformation from old industrial area to office hub. Dozens of former factories in Kwun Tong have been converted into modern office buildings, and the Kai Tak redevelopment (site of the old airport) is ongoing with new Grade A office towers, hotels, and condos. As of 2025, Kowloon East offers Grade A office space at a deep discount to Central – rents are roughly half, and many large floor-plate offices have opened there. But vacancy is high (~20%+) jll.com.hk jll.com.hk, as supply has outpaced take-up. Some big firms that moved in earlier (drawn by lower rents) later downsized or moved out during COVID. Kai Tak’s office market in particular is nascent; a flagship tower opened by a major tenant was largely empty after completion. Outlook: Over the next few years, Kowloon East will be a tenant’s market – expect aggressive deals as landlords seek to fill buildings. The area’s success will depend on improved transport links (the Shatin-Central rail helps, and the Environment-friendly linkage system within Kai Tak is planned) and perhaps government agencies relocating there. There is still optimism that, given time, Kowloon East will mature into a vibrant commercial district (with new malls, the Kai Tak Sports Park mega-stadium opening in 2024, etc.). For now, though, investors approach with caution due to the high vacancy and long lease-up periods.
• West Kowloon & Tsim Sha Tsui: The West Kowloon area, bordering Tsim Sha Tsui, is fast emerging thanks to the high-speed rail terminus and West Kowloon Cultural District (WKCD). The WKCD has delivered world-class venues (M+ museum, Palace Museum, Xiqu Centre) which have increased foot traffic and made the area a cultural-tourism hotspot. Adjacent to that, as mentioned, the International Gateway Centre and other new towers are adding a modern skyline. Tsim Sha Tsui (TST) itself remains a prime shopping and hotel district. It suffered in 2020 with tourist absence but is bouncing back – small storefront rents in TST saw some uptick in 2024 as mass-market brands expanded cushmanwakefield.com cushmanwakefield.com. TST’s office buildings (such as those along Canton Road or in Harbour City complex) enjoy low vacancy (~8% jll.com.hk jll.com.hk) due to demand from design, sourcing and mainland firms. Outlook: With West Kowloon’s new supply, the extended TST/West Kowloon district could form a large contiguous business zone by 2028. This area has the advantage of being a crossroads – the rail link to Shenzhen/Guangzhou, the airport express, and proximity to Central via harbour tunnels. We expect growing demand for offices in West Kowloon once the initial supply is absorbed, as companies looking to straddle Hong Kong and mainland markets find it attractive. Residential projects in nearby areas (Olympic station, Austin station) are also in demand, given the convenient location. Investors should watch how quickly IGC and others lease up – a rapid absorption would validate West Kowloon’s potential and lift the area’s profile (and values).
• New Territories (North & North-West): The New Territories is where Hong Kong’s future growth is centered, thanks to the Northern Metropolis plan. Currently, districts like Yuen Long, Tuen Mun, Tin Shui Wai are more residential and industrial backwaters (with some exceptions like bustling Yuen Long town). But 2024 data already showed these areas coming to the fore: Yuen Long and Tuen Mun had 34% of all new private flat completions in 2024 globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com, indicating developers’ focus on NT greenfield sites. Home prices in the New Territories are generally lower (roughly 30–50% cheaper per sq ft than urban Kowloon/HK Island), which, combined with new transport links, is attracting younger families. The coming Northern Metropolis will encompass places like Kwu Tung (near Lok Ma Chau) – earmarked for a massive tech and housing hub. The government has begun rezoning land and negotiating with Shenzhen to make a cross-border innovation zone happen. Outlook: By 2028, we will likely see the first phases of Northern Metropolis under construction – possibly new public housing estates and the Lok Ma Chau Loop tech campus (where some buildings are already rising). Border towns could become property hotspots as infrastructure connects them to urban centers (e.g. new MTR Northern Link in planning). Investors with a long view are already accumulating land or old village properties in Northern NT anticipating a windfall. However, there are risks – development here means resettling villages, tackling environmental issues, and aligning with Shenzhen’s plans, which could cause delays. If executed well, Northern NT could be the Shenzhen-HK “Silicon Valley”, driving demand for both housing and offices (and perhaps easing prices citywide by adding supply). In the medium term, districts like Yuen Long, Sheung Shui, Fanling will steadily grow in population and amenities, narrowing the gap with traditional urban areas.
• Lantau Island & Airport Zone: Lantau hosts the airport, Hong Kong’s gateway, and is seeing a development push. Apart from the long-term Lantau Tomorrow, the near term has the Tung Chung expansion (with thousands of flats coming by 2027) globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com. Also, the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, opened 2018, has made Lantau a strategic logistics locale – a bridgehead economy is emerging in towns like Tung Chung and Sunny Bay, envisioning logistics parks and even proposals for entertainment hubs. Outlook: Lantau’s property market (e.g. Discovery Bay expat community, Tung Chung flats) will benefit from improved connectivity and the airport’s growth (airport City project with retail, office, expo facilities). However, much of the reclaimed land for Lantau Tomorrow won’t impact the market until 2030s. Investors are meanwhile bullish on hotels and outlet retail near the airport, expecting tourism to fully revive (the airport handled a record 74 million passengers pre-COVID; in 2023 it was recovering). Government plans to develop Smart City features on Lantau (e.g. autonomous vehicles in new areas) could also make it an attractive, modern living area in the future.
• Older Urban Districts (Sham Shui Po, Tokwawan, etc.): These areas with many aging buildings are going through URA-led renewal. For example, in Sham Shui Po, projects like Mei Ho House heritage and new high-rises are coming. Kowloon City (To Kwa Wan) had a wave of new condos after the old Kai Tak airport closed. These districts often see a patchwork of new luxury condos amid old tong lau (walk-up apartments). Outlook: They offer opportunities for boutique developers and investors to participate in smaller-scale redevelopments. As the URA actively tenders sites, more modern housing and commercial spaces will emerge here by 2028, raising the profile (and prices) of neighborhoods that were once considered “old” or “blue-collar.” For instance, the opening of the To Kwa Wan MTR station in 2021 already uplifted that area’s prospects. We anticipate steady gentrification in these locales.

In summary, Hong Kong’s growth geography is expanding. While the Island and old Kowloon remain vital (especially for grade-A offices and luxury homes), the new frontiers in Kowloon East, West Kowloon, and the Northern New Territories are where much of the action and opportunity lie in the next few years. Emerging areas offer both higher risk and higher potential reward: success depends on infrastructure completion and demand materialization. For investors, a balanced approach might involve holding core assets in prime districts for stability, while selectively investing in emerging districts for upside (e.g. purchasing retail space in a new town center before population fully catches up). For end-users, the variety of districts means more lifestyle choices – from urban convenience to more space in suburban new towns – which is a positive development given Hong Kong’s historical land constraints.

Investment Opportunities and Risks

As Hong Kong’s real estate market transitions in 2025, investors are weighing new opportunities against lingering risks. Below we outline major opportunities and key risks to consider in the 2025–2028 horizon:

Major Investment Opportunities:

• Rebound Plays in Oversold Segments: After the correction of the past few years, certain property segments offer value. High-quality office buildings with depressed valuations (especially in decentralized areas) present a chance for value investing – investors can acquire Grade A assets at significantly lower prices than a few years ago, with the prospect of recovery in rents by the late 2020s. For instance, office capital values in Kowloon are down sharply, and owners like banks are starting to offload repossessed office assets hongkongbusiness.hk. Savvy investors are eyeing these distressed or underperforming assets for repositioning or long-term holds. Similarly, retail properties in tourist districts (causeway shops, TST malls) that saw steep rent declines could yield strong returns if bought now and held until visitor spending fully returns.
• Hotels and Hospitality: The hospitality sector is on the upswing with tourism revival. Notably, hotels comprised 45% of total real estate transaction value in Q1 2025 hongkongbusiness.hk hongkongbusiness.hk – a sign that investors are bullish on hotels. Many hotels were loss-making or repurposed during COVID (some leased as government quarantine). Now, with occupancy and room rates rising, those who invest in or acquire hotels stand to benefit. There’s also conversion opportunities: some aging commercial buildings are being converted into hotels to meet future demand. The Hong Kong government’s drive to host major events and attract visitors (e.g. Art Basel, Rugby Sevens, etc.) underpins the outlook. By 2028, Hong Kong might face a shortage of quality hotel rooms again, making current prices attractive.
• Logistics and Data Centers: Despite a short-term wobble, logistics properties remain fundamentally sound. E-commerce growth and supply chain reconfiguration will keep Hong Kong relevant as a distribution center in Asia. Modern warehouses yield decent income and have low obsolescence. Additionally, data centers are in high demand given Hong Kong’s status as a data hub (excellent telecom infrastructure and proximity to China). Converting or building industrial sites into data centers is a lucrative niche – global tech firms and REITs are actively seeking space. Investors who can navigate the technical requirements and power supply issues can tap into this growing asset class with stable long-term returns (often via long leases to major tech tenants).
• Residential Development in New Areas: The government’s aggressive housing plans mean a lot of land will be made available via tender in new development areas. For developers with strong execution, the Northern Metropolis and other New Towns present huge opportunities – large-scale projects with potential economies of scale. Land costs in these areas may be lower (government might offer partnerships or favorable terms to ensure targets are met), and demand should be robust given housing needs. Also, in the medium term, if interest rates fall, residential prices could start climbing again from 2025 onwards, yielding profit for those who secured land during the trough. Even for smaller investors, buying early in an emerging district (pre-growth) can yield capital appreciation as infrastructure and population come in.
• Education and Specialty Real Estate: A somewhat under-the-radar opportunity: education-related properties. Colliers projects growing demand for international schools, kindergartens, and training centers as more expat families and mainland professionals come to Hong Kong hongkongbusiness.hk hongkongbusiness.hk. Properties suitable for campuses or learning centers (with large floor plates, in residential areas) could see increased investor interest. Similarly, senior housing and healthcare facilities are likely to expand (given aging demographics), opening niches for senior living developments or medical office buildings – segments still nascent in Hong Kong.
• Green and Sustainable Retrofits: Investors who focus on ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) could add value by retrofitting older buildings to green standards. Hong Kong’s push for sustainability means there are incentives for energy-efficient buildings. Modernizing an old office or residential block (better insulation, smart systems) can increase its attractiveness to tenants and future-proof it against likely government mandates on energy use.

Key Risks and Challenges:

• Interest Rate and Financing Risk: Although rates appear to be stabilizing, any unexpected surge in global interest rates would directly hit Hong Kong (via the currency peg). High rates increase borrowing costs, reduce buyers’ affordability, and can lead to defaults and forced sales (especially for highly leveraged investors). Smaller developers or investors with floating-rate debt are vulnerable if rates stay elevated longer than anticipated. On the flip side, if rates drop too quickly and cause a sudden influx of hot money, it could necessitate policy responses.
• Global Macro and Geopolitical Risks: Hong Kong is extremely exposed to external factors. A downturn in the global economy or in China could derail the local property recovery. For instance: a significant China property market crisis or slower mainland growth can reduce mainland investment in Hong Kong property and weaken luxury demand. Geopolitically, US–China tensions pose a constant risk – new sanctions, tariffs, or capital flow restrictions could spook investors or limit cross-border money. Hong Kong’s unique East-meets-West position makes it sensitive; any escalation (tech war, Taiwan strait issues) could lead to caution or even expat relocations affecting office occupancy.
• Local Political and Regulatory Changes: While the political scene is stable now, any major changes (like leadership shifts or policy reversals) could impact real estate. For example, if housing affordability for locals doesn’t improve, the government could face pressure to reimpose cooling measures or stricter ownership rules (like more taxes on foreign buyers again or vacancy taxes with teeth). The memory of past abrupt policy announcements (like 15% stamp duty overnight in 2012) means policy risk is always present. Furthermore, if housing prices rebound too fast, the public outcry could cause a policy clampdown – a balancing act for authorities.
• Oversupply in Certain Segments: Although overall Hong Kong is supply-starved, localized oversupply is possible. The office sector is a prime example – too many new offices in Kowloon East/West Kowloon could lead to a protracted glut and financially strain landlords (though big players are coping, smaller ones or those with single assets could suffer). Likewise, if the Northern Metropolis and Lantau projects all come on stream as scheduled, by late 2020s there might be an overhang of new homes – particularly if population growth doesn’t meet forecasts or if emigration resumes. An oversupply would cap prices and rents, reducing developers’ profit margins.
• Construction Costs & Labor: Building in Hong Kong is costly and time-consuming. Recently, construction material costs have been volatile globally, and Hong Kong also faces a skilled labor shortage in construction. Delays and budget overruns are common in mega-projects. For developers, this is a risk – winning a government land tender at a certain price, only to have construction costs spiral, can eat into margins or even render a project unviable if the market shifts. The government is trying to mitigate this by prefabrication and importing labor, but it remains a challenge that could slow supply delivery.
• Currency Peg Stability: This is a low-probability but high-impact risk. Hong Kong’s property market is underpinned by the USD-HKD peg, which keeps interest rates tied to the Fed and historically delivered low rates and capital inflows. If there were ever pressure on the peg (due to massive capital outflows or political pressure), it could cause monetary instability. A change in the peg regime would cause a major repricing of assets. Most analysts expect the peg to hold (it’s been robust since 1983), but it’s a background risk to acknowledge.
• Market Sentiment Swings: Real estate is as much psychological as fundamental in Hong Kong. Negative sentiment – whether due to a sudden outbreak (as seen in 2020), policy misstep, or a credit event – can freeze transactions and send prices south quickly. Conversely, exuberance can return (as seen in past recoveries) and inflate a mini-bubble. Investors must navigate these swings carefully, perhaps through diversification or a focus on income yield rather than purely speculative flips. Liquidity risk is also real: in down periods, finding buyers can be tough, which could trap investors who over-leveraged expecting quick sales.

In balancing these, many see 2025 as an attractive entry point into Hong Kong real estate – values are relatively low, and the government and economy are providing support for an upswing. But it’s a time for selectivity and due diligence. Well-located, quality properties should outperform secondary ones (the bifurcation between prime and non-prime assets might widen). Investors are advised to stress-test their investments against the risks mentioned: e.g., can the asset yield cover higher interest? Is there an alternative use if the primary use underperforms?

Ultimately, Hong Kong’s fundamentals – rule of law in commerce, gateway to China, global finance hub – suggest that despite recent challenges, it remains a compelling real estate market for those with a medium to long-term perspective. The next few years will likely reward investors who can navigate short-term volatility while positioning for the city’s transformation (through Northern Metropolis, integration into Greater Bay Area, and a post-COVID economic model). Prudent risk management and alignment with government direction (e.g. partnering on public-private projects, embracing smart/green development) will be key to capitalizing on Hong Kong’s next chapter.

Market Outlook 2025–2028: Cautious Optimism Ahead

Looking forward, Hong Kong’s real estate market is poised for gradual recovery and realignment over the next 3–4 years. The worst of the pandemic fallout and policy-induced correction appears behind us, but the pace of improvement will vary by sector and hinge on macro conditions. Here’s a sector-by-sector forecast through 2028:

• Residential: The base case scenario is for stabilization in 2025, followed by moderate price growth in 2026–2028. With the housing market finding its footing by late 2025 (inventory down, demand revived), home prices could see low-to-mid single digit percentage increases annually in the latter part of the decade. This assumes interest rates ease somewhat (improving affordability) and the economy grows steadily. We are unlikely to see a return to the 20%+ annual surges of the 2010s given the government’s supply measures and still-recovering sentiment. Instead, expect a more sustainable trajectory – perhaps total private home price growth on the order of +10% to +15% cumulatively from 2025 to 2028, with luxury outperforming mass market. By 2028, mass market prices might regain their 2019 levels (erasing the recent dip), while luxury segment could even challenge prior peaks if mainland wealth flow resumes. Transaction volumes should remain healthy as long as policy stays friendly – we might see ~60k+ deals per year (higher than the ~45–50k of recent years, but below the 100k peak years). Key swing factors include: global interest rates (a sharp rise would spoil the recovery), success of talent inflow programs (more population = more housing demand), and execution of new supply (if the government floods the market with new flats faster than expected, that could temper prices). Overall, a balanced outlook: housing likely transitions from a buyers’ market in 2023–25 to a more neutral market by 2027, with equilibrium between supply and demand in sight as JLL noted worldpropertyjournal.com worldpropertyjournal.com.
• Office: The office sector will probably face another year or two of softness before reaching a turning point. 2025 and early 2026 could see further rental declines (accumulating perhaps -5% to -10% more, on top of previous drops) as new supply peaks and vacancy approaches its apex around 18–20% hongkongbusiness.hk. Many leases coming up for renewal in 2025 will re-price downward (Fitch expects low-teen % rent cuts for those) hongkongbusiness.hk, keeping averages subdued. However, by 2027, we anticipate vacancy rates to start edging down if economic growth continues and fewer new projects enter the pipeline. The late 2020s might see a tighter office market as today’s excess gets absorbed – but this largely depends on Hong Kong’s success in attracting businesses (e.g. mainland firms setting up HQs, international firms expanding in GBA). Assuming a moderate uptake, Grade A office rents could stabilize around 2026 and potentially rise a bit (say 2-3% a year) in 2027–28, mostly in prime buildings. Lesser buildings might lag or even face repurposing. Capital values should follow rents with a lag; we expect them to bottom in 2025–26 and then recover slowly. By 2028, office rents and prices may still be below 2019 peak, but the market should be healthier, with a new equilibrium vacancy perhaps in high single digits (given some remote work persistence). One wildcard: if mainland companies aggressively re-enter (e.g. state-owned enterprises consolidating regional offices in HK), the absorption could accelerate and push a stronger recovery.
• Retail: The trajectory for retail real estate is cautiously positive. 2025 is likely the year of stabilization, with minor rent declines or flat performance. From 2026 onward, if tourism fully normalizes (possibly hitting 60+ million visitors by 2027, approaching pre-crisis levels), retail rents could start climbing again, especially in prime tourist districts. We project high street shop rents to rise perhaps 5–10% total over 2026–2028, recovering some lost ground as vacancy falls back into single digits. Prime shopping center rents may see similar or slightly lower growth, given they held steadier earlier. The retail sector’s recovery will also get a boost from major events (the city is bidding for events like the Gay Games, etc.) and from big attractions (Hong Kong Disneyland is expanding, new museum openings, etc.). By 2028, retail rents likely still trail 2014’s peak, but the tenant mix will have shifted to a more diversified one, possibly making the sector less volatile (less over-reliance on a few luxury brands). One risk to this outlook is the mainland consumer behavior: if more Chinese tourists choose to shop domestically (with luxury import tariffs cut in China, they have less incentive to buy in HK than before), Hong Kong may never fully recapture its previous luxury sales volume. In that case, retail rents might plateau at a new normal. But overall sales volume should be healthy as the sheer visitor numbers and local spending power increase with economic growth (the government’s forecast for retail sales is modest growth in coming years, aligning with a broader consumption recovery).
• Industrial: We expect the industrial/logistics sector to remain relatively stable with a positive bias over the medium term. After a slight rise in vacancy and flat rents in 2024–2025, the growing needs of e-commerce, regional distribution for ASEAN trade, and integration with GBA logistics will likely boost demand. Industrial rents could resume a modest uptrend by 2026, potentially accumulating ~5%–10% growth by 2028 from current levels, especially for modern warehouse space. Vacancy might revert to around 5% or lower by 2028 as the market rebalances and fewer new completions come on (since land for big warehouses is limited). Also, any decommissioning of older industrial buildings for redevelopment will effectively remove stock, tightening supply. The industrial property values might climb faster than rents, because investor demand is high – we foresee cap rate compression as more capital (including institutional funds and REITs) chases the stable income of logistics assets. If interest rates fall, this will further fuel price gains in the industrial segment. By 2028, the sector could be one of the best-performing in terms of total returns (rental + capital appreciation), provided global trade is not severely disrupted.
• Emerging Segments (Tech/Innovation real estate): As Hong Kong diversifies, by 2028 we might talk about the growth of tech office parks (Lok Ma Chau Loop’s first phase opening perhaps) and life-sciences labs. The government’s plans to develop an IT hub in the Northern Metropolis could create a new class of properties (laboratory offices, R&D campuses). These would likely be driven via public-private partnerships with specific industry players. If the plans progress, by 2028 we could see initial occupancy of these, attracting companies and talent – a bullish sign for the city’s economic base. Real estate associated with the Greater Bay Area integration – think cross-boundary logistics facilities, co-working spaces for Mainland firms – will also become more prominent.

In a big-picture sense, Hong Kong real estate by 2028 will likely have moved past the COVID shock and political uncertainties of the early 2020s, returning to a trajectory of moderate growth aligned with economic fundamentals. The government’s actions imply they aim for a “soft landing” and stabilization rather than another runaway boom: ample housing supply to rein in extreme prices, but also measures to ensure property remains an attractive investment.

Investors with a long-term horizon remain optimistic: Hong Kong consistently ranks as one of Asia’s top real estate investment markets for its liquidity and rule of law, and that is expected to continue. Global financial firms are expanding in Hong Kong again (witness the many banks hiring in wealth management for managing Chinese capital), which bodes well for office and luxury residential demand. Mainland Chinese capital, which was more or less on pause in 2020–2022, is likely to return – if China’s economy stabilizes, affluent mainland buyers could once again view Hong Kong property as a safe asset haven, especially with the border fully open and RMB weakening making HK assets cheaper in RMB terms jll.com.hk jll.com.hk. Indeed, JLL posits that RMB depreciation could attract mainland capital into Hong Kong’s residential market jll.com.hk jll.com.hk. Such an inflow, if it materializes, could turbocharge the high-end segment and even prompt the government to monitor for any overheating.

Forecast Summary: Hong Kong’s real estate market, across sectors, is set for improvement but not without caution. Stakeholders should expect gradual gains rather than a sharp boom, with 2025 being the transition year that sets the stage. By 2028, we anticipate:

• Residential prices modestly higher than 2025, sales volumes healthy; housing still expensive but slightly more affordable than peak years due to income growth and government housing additions.
• Office rents likely bottomed and starting to climb slowly; vacancy down from peak but still above historical low, with a bifurcation between sought-after locations (tight) and oversupplied ones (looser).
• Retail rents recovering but shy of old highs; the retail landscape more experiential and diversified.
• Industrial/logistics solid with low vacancies and rising importance in the GBA context; possibly the first sector to fully reach pre-2019 performance.
• New districts (Northern Metropolis etc.) under development, injecting optimism for Hong Kong’s future expansion and providing real estate opportunities beyond the traditional core.

Crucially, much depends on external economic conditions. If a global recession hits in 2026, it could delay or mute these recoveries. Conversely, if China’s reopening and global economy exceed expectations, Hong Kong property might outperform our baseline forecasts. Therefore, “cautious optimism” is the watchword – the pieces are in place for a rebound, but the pace will be measured. As one research headline put it, Hong Kong’s market has a “mixed outlook” but with opportunities emerging as headwinds abate hongkongbusiness.hk. The city’s adaptability has been proven many times, and its real estate market is now adapting to a post-pandemic, policy-reset era – one that looks to be on a firmer, more sustainable footing heading into 2028.

Sources:

• Global Property Guide – Hong Kong Residential Market Analysis 2025 globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com
• Cushman & Wakefield – Hong Kong 1H 2025 Market Review and 2H Outlook cushmanwakefield.com cushmanwakefield.com cushmanwakefield.com
• JLL – Hong Kong Q1 2025 Preliminary Market Summary jll.com.hk jll.com.hk jll.com.hk
• Hong Kong Business (Colliers) – Mixed Outlook for 2025 hongkongbusiness.hk hongkongbusiness.hk; Fitch Sees Office Vacancy Rising hongkongbusiness.hk hongkongbusiness.hk
• S&P Global Market Intelligence – Hong Kong real estate cooling spglobal.com spglobal.com
• Savills Research – Hong Kong Industrial Sales & Leasing (Mar 2025) savills.com savills.com
• Reuters – Hong Kong population up slightly in 2024 reuters.com reuters.com
• Others: Rating & Valuation Dept data via GlobalPropertyGuide globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com, HK Tourism Board via news hongkongfp.com, and government press releases/info globalpropertyguide.com globalpropertyguide.com for policy and planning details.